Ipsos Global Inflation Monitor November 2022 has revealed trends for 2023 due to the impact of inflation.

According to the report, 65 per cent of urban Indians and 69 per cent of global citizens has polled to foresee inflation. 58 per cent urban Indians expect interest rates to soar, taxes by 56 per cent and unemployment by 59 per cent to increase in the next one year. 

At least 70 per cent of urban Indians surveyed said that corporations generating excessive profits, high interest rates and the national government's policies were the main causes of price hikes. While the other reasons include situation of the global economy, conflict in Ukraine, the covid19 epidemic, employees requesting pay raises and immigration into the nation.

Commenting on the findings, Amit Adarkar, CEO, Ipsos India says, “Interesting new angle emerging for price rise. Marketers often offset the impact of the rising input cost, through the shrinkflation route, by passing on the burden to the consumers, though they have been highly cautious by either retaining the price points by decreasing the grammage or size of the SKU or absorbing the cost. The full impact of Global economic slowdown, Ukraine war and covid19 pandemic are lower in the pecking order among the top causes of price rise and inflation.”

Top reasons cited by global citizens for price increases are:

• State of the global economy : 74 per cent
• Russian invasion of Ukraine and its consequences : 70 per cent
• Interest rate level in their country : 68 per cent
• Policy of their national govt. : 68 per cent 
• Businesses making excessive profit : 62 per cent
• Covid19 pandemic : 61 per cent
• Workers demanding pay increases : 51 per cent
• Immigration into my country : 50 per cent 

Ray of Optimism

The Inflation Monitor shows 1 in 2 urban Indians, i.e., 51 per cent expect their standard of living to improve in the next one year. While 1 in 2 urban Indians (50 per cent) are optimistic of their disposable incomes increasing in the next 1 year. 

India is the 3rd most optimistic market after Thailand and UAE with 53 and 52 per cent respectively. 

Urban Indians predict that the cost of fuel and other household items like gas, electricity will rise. The cost of subscription services like Netflix, gym is also expected to rise.

Pay Raise Expectations & Job Search

32 per cent expect that their pay will remain the same, while 30 per cent believe pay to rise below the rate of inflation, and 24 per cent expect their pay to rise at the rate of inflation or above. However, 11 per cent expect their pay to decrease.

It's interesting to note that at least 2 out of 3 of urban Indians planned to hunt for employment with another company. In terms of markets polled, India had the highest intention to look for a job in 2023.

“India had joblessness as one issue, but employee churn is also seen to be highly rampant as skilled workforce either rotates in the industry for lucrative offers or jumps onto a new industry with a better pay packet,” adds Adarkar.